EPL Cards and Corners 2013-14

[averick]

Been paper testing my strategy for the past few weeks with pretty decent results, so here goes!

Most bets will be for 1 unit with the bet size increased for matches I have more confidence in.

There is no specific target (though I would be very happy with an ROI exceeding 7%) and I won't be keeping track of a bank (so just P&L, ROI), although anyone tailing is advised to start with a 100 point bank.

1. Tottenham - Chelsea total cards under 5 @ 1.875 (Bet365, 1 unit)
2. Aston Villa - Man City total cards under 3.5 @ 1.75 (Bet365, 1 unit)
3. Aston Villa - Man City corner asian handicap -2 @ 1.8 (Bet365, 1 unit)
4. Swansea - Arsenal total cards under 3.5 @ 2 (Bet365, 1 unit)
5. Swansea - Arsenal total corners over 10.5​ @ 1.95 (Bet365, 1 unit)

 

[averick]

Missed out one bet...

6. Man United - West Brom total cards under 3 @ 1.9 (Bet365, 1 unit)

 

[averick]

Had a few leans but ultimately nothing for the early game. A quick results update:

1. Tottenham - Chelsea total cards under 5 @ 1.875 (Bet365, 1 unit) 5-3 LOSE
2. Aston Villa - Man City total cards under 3.5 @ 1.75 (Bet365, 1 unit) 1-1 WIN
3. Aston Villa - Man City corner asian handicap -2 @ 1.8 (Bet365, 1 unit) 2-13 WIN
4. Swansea - Arsenal total cards under 3.5 @ 2 (Bet365, 1 unit) 3-2 LOSE
5. Swansea - Arsenal total corners over 10.5​ @ 1.95 (Bet365, 1 unit) 4-3 LOSE
6. Man United - West Brom total cards under 3 @ 1.9 (Bet365, 1 unit) 3-2 LOSE



YTD 2-4-0 -2.45 units

 

[rolltide]

most of us won't have any outs for these type of bets but i'd probably rely a bit more on h2h on cards than anything else . corners i'd be incorporating possession in final third and trying to find games b/w two teams with a lot of touches in opponents box (on the current season). just my $.02

 

[averick]

7. Liverpool cards asian handicap (0) @ 2.15 (Marathon, 1 unit)
8. Sunderland cards asian handicap (+2) @ 2.20 (Marathon, 1 unit)

 

[averick]

most of us won't have any outs for these type of bets but i'd probably rely a bit more on h2h on cards than anything else . corners i'd be incorporating possession in final third and trying to find games b/w two teams with a lot of touches in opponents box (on the current season). just my $.02

i find recent trends useful too especially with the various managerial changes this season. you mentioned possession in the final third and touches in the opponent's box. anywhere with stats on these?

 

[rolltide]

yeah, opta keeps track of all of that stuff

 

[averick]

sorry bet 8. should be

8. Sunderland CORNERS asian handicap (+2) @ 2.02 (Marathon, 1 unit)

the wrong line totally doesn't make sense at all. Here's proof of the bet:

Bet was placed 15 min before the match (2245 over here).

 

[averick]

7. Liverpool cards asian handicap (0) @ 2.15 (Marathon, 1 unit) 2-1 LOSE
8. Sunderland corners asian handicap (+2) @ 2.02 (Marathon, 1 unit) 10-8 WIN

Overall YTD 3-5-0 -2.43 units
Cards 1-4-0 -3.25 units
Corners 2-1-0 +0.82 units

 

[averick]

9. Everton - Newcastle Total Corners under 10.5 @ 2.10 ​(Marathon, 1 unit)

 

[rolltide]

i'm sure you're using this but passing on some info on refs. in euros and world cup we can all bet on cards/corners and i always consult the ref angles http://www.premierleague.com/content/premierleague/en-gb/referees/index.html

tonight is pawson and next week already assigned. pawson is a new guy....

dean led PL in yc's last year and is leading yc's again this year. consider over cards in soton match as swans have most YC's in league this year http://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/2/Seasons/3853

[h=2]Referee Appointments for Matchweek 7[/h]

DATE	K.O.	MATCHES	STADIUM	REFEREE
Sat 5 Oct 2013	12:45	Man City v Everton	Etihad Stadium	Jonathan Moss
Sat 5 Oct 2013	15:00	Cardiff v Newcastle	Cardiff City Stadium	Kevin Friend
Sat 5 Oct 2013	15:00	Fulham v Stoke	Craven Cottage	Roger East
Sat 5 Oct 2013	15:00	Hull v Aston Villa	The KC Stadium	Mark Clattenburg
Sat 5 Oct 2013	15:00	Liverpool v Crystal Palace	Anfield	Anthony Taylor
Sat 5 Oct 2013	17:30	Sunderland v Man Utd	Stadium of Light	Chris Foy
Sun 6 Oct 2013	13:30	Norwich v Chelsea	Carrow Road	Neil Swarbrick
Sun 6 Oct 2013	13:30	Southampton v Swansea	St. Mary's Stadium	Mike Dean
Sun 6 Oct 2013	16:00	Spurs v West Ham	White Hart Lane	Lee Probert
Sun 6 Oct 2013	16:00	West Brom v Arsenal	The Hawthorns	Lee Mason

 

[averick]

Thanks for the info roll, referee appointments are indeed an important factor for me.

I do believe that Phil Dowd is today's referee though, with Pawson being the 4th official.

h2h for tonight's match points towards the over but Everton have been a very 'fair' team under Martinez's leadership this season, while Dowd has averaged 2.4 cards in 5 games this season (3.19 avg including last season).
Was leaning towards Newcastle to receive the most YCs but there is no value imo at 1.64 odds.

Newcastle continue to be horrible at winning corners on the road this season; expecting something like 6-8 corners for Everton and <3 corners for Newcastle but what do I know lol.

 

[averick]

Thanks for the heads-up on the next round of fixtures btw, won't have time to look at the games till matchday itself but will keep your insights in mind.

 

[averick]

9. Everton - Newcastle Total Corners under 10.5 @ 2.10 ​(Marathon, 1 unit) 1-1 WIN

Overall YTD 4-5-0 -1.33 units
Cards 1-4-0 -3.25 units
Corners 3-1-0 +1.92 units

 

[averick]

10. Man City - Everton total cards under 4.0 @ 2 (Bet365, 1 unit)
11. Fulham - Stoke corners draw no bet @ 2.65​ (Marathon, 1 unit)

 

[LA_Puig]

Osasuna have played a few over the total regarding Corners.

 

[averick]

The last two bets were losers.

Overall YTD 4-7-0 -3.33 units
Cards 1-5-0 -4.25 units
Corners 3-2-0 +0.92 units

12. Newcastle - Liverpool corners handicap -1.5 @ 1.96 (Marathon, 2 units)

 

[averick]

13. Arsenal - Norwich total corners under 10.5 @ 2.1868 after commission (Betfair, 1 unit)
14. Man U - Soton United cards handicap +0.5 @ 2.25 (Bet365, 1 unit)
15. Man U - Soton corners handicap +2 @ 1.95 (Bet365, 1 unit)

 

[averick]

16. West Ham - Man City corners handicap -1.5 @ 1.90 (Bet365, 2 units)

 

[averick]

Corners wise the game totally died off once City went 3-1 up. Lots of short neat possession play from City and very little attacking intent although they got the ball to the byline quite abit.

Overall YTD 6-10-0 -4.46 units
Cards 1-6-0 -5.25 units
Corners 5-4-0 +0.79 units

17. Aston Villa - Tottenham Hotspur most corners @ 1.5 (Bet365, 4 units)

Not chasing, feel pretty strongly about this and didn't like the odds on the handicap.